Game of Inches: Celtics Need Paint Pressure, Knicks Need Brunson’s Poise

By Alvin Harris, May 7, 2025

Game 1 belonged to New York.

The Knicks walked into TD Garden and stole Game 1 from a Celtics team favored to win the series and reach the Finals. Now, with both Boston and OKC listed as double-digit favorites in Game 2, Vegas is betting the upsets were flukes. Game 1 delivered two major shocks—upsets by the Knicks and a Western underdog. Yet Vegas remains confident, backing Boston and OKC with wide spreads in Game 2. Behind the noise, the stats and strategies reveal a more nuanced battle unfolding.

But if these playoffs have shown us anything, it’s this: predict at your own risk.

🎯 ANALYTICAL BREAKDOWN:

1. Kristaps Porziņģis: The Wild Card

Status: Probable for Game 2, but still recovering from an illness that’s lingered since February/March.
Impact: He’s clearly not 100%. His playoff numbers are woeful (32% FG, 2-17 from 3), pointing to fatigue and possibly compromised lung capacity (upper respiratory).
Strategic Implication: Porziņģis’ role as a floor spacer and secondary rim protector is diminished. Boston may need to lean more on Al Horford’s switch defense and Tatum’s downhill drives.

2. Celtics Offense: Live by the 3, Die by the 3

Game 1: NBA postseason record 63 three-point attempts — and another record 45 misses.
Coaching Philosophy: Joe Mazzulla remains unapologetic. Even after admitting 8–10 poor shot selections, he doubled down on the strategy. The team believes open looks are process wins, not failures.
Adjustment?: Don’t expect fewer threes. Do expect better threes—specifically:
- Off paint touches.
- From inside-out ball movement rather than pull-ups.
- Corner threes over wing/deep contested ones.

3. Paint Touches: The Missing Ingredient

Key Tactical Note: Celtics were too perimeter-oriented.
Why it matters:
- Driving into the paint forces defensive rotation.
- Creates 2-on-1 scenarios on the weak side.
- Opens up corner shooters like Derrick White and Payton Pritchard.
- Tatum and Brown are best when they collapse the defense — not just when jacking threes off the bounce.
Comparison: Knicks got better shots by collapsing Boston’s defense and making “good to great” passes.

4. Jalen Brunson: Mr. Clutch

Stats: Leads all playoff players in clutch scoring (35 points, nearly double the next).
Game 1 Impact:
- Late-game assassin.
- Attacks mismatches: Even Al Horford got danced on.
- Draws in defenders and kicks out — a mature floor general.
Film Breakdown:
- Uses body well, finishes through contact.
- Not afraid of physicality or the moment.
- Slows the game down in clutch, creating chaos with pace control.
Boston’s Concern: If the game stays close, it becomes Brunson’s game to win.

5. The Knicks’ Synergy and Simplicity

Execution:
- Drive-and-kick game is sharp.
- Bigs screen with purpose (e.g., Isaiah Hartenstein and Josh Hart creating angles).
- No wasted movement.
Role Players:
- Quick decisions. Bridges, Hart, DiVincenzo — all making the extra pass.
- They don’t need volume, just decisiveness.

6. Thunder & Celtics Both as Double-Digit Favorites

Vegas Belief: Game 1 upsets won’t be repeated.
Why?
- Regression to the mean for shooters.
- Celtics are unlikely to miss 45 threes again.
- Thunder likely to ramp up defensive pressure at home.

🔍 FINAL TAKEAWAY:

This is not just about shots going in or not. It’s about:

Where those shots come from.
When they come in the shot clock.
And who’s generating them.

For Boston, the key is intentionality in the paint, and for New York, it’s keeping the game within clutch range—where Brunson becomes a demigod.