By Alvin Harris, May 7, 2025
Game 1 belonged to New York.
The Knicks walked into TD Garden and stole Game 1 from a Celtics team favored to win the series and reach the Finals. Now, with both Boston and OKC listed as double-digit favorites in Game 2, Vegas is betting the upsets were flukes. Game 1 delivered two major shocks—upsets by the Knicks and a Western underdog. Yet Vegas remains confident, backing Boston and OKC with wide spreads in Game 2. Behind the noise, the stats and strategies reveal a more nuanced battle unfolding.
But if these playoffs have shown us anything, it’s this: predict at your own risk.
🎯 ANALYTICAL BREAKDOWN:
1. Kristaps Porziņģis: The Wild Card
- Status: Probable for Game 2, but still recovering from an illness that’s lingered since February/March.
- Impact: He’s clearly not 100%. His playoff numbers are woeful (32% FG, 2-17 from 3), pointing to fatigue and possibly compromised lung capacity (upper respiratory).
- Strategic Implication: Porziņģis’ role as a floor spacer and secondary rim protector is diminished. Boston may need to lean more on Al Horford’s switch defense and Tatum’s downhill drives.
2. Celtics Offense: Live by the 3, Die by the 3
- Game 1: NBA postseason record 63 three-point attempts — and another record 45 misses.
- Coaching Philosophy: Joe Mazzulla remains unapologetic. Even after admitting 8–10 poor shot selections, he doubled down on the strategy. The team believes open looks are process wins, not failures.
- Adjustment?: Don’t expect fewer threes. Do expect better threes—specifically:
- Off paint touches.
- From inside-out ball movement rather than pull-ups.
- Corner threes over wing/deep contested ones.
3. Paint Touches: The Missing Ingredient
- Key Tactical Note: Celtics were too perimeter-oriented.
- Why it matters:
- Driving into the paint forces defensive rotation.
- Creates 2-on-1 scenarios on the weak side.
- Opens up corner shooters like Derrick White and Payton Pritchard.
- Tatum and Brown are best when they collapse the defense — not just when jacking threes off the bounce.
- Comparison: Knicks got better shots by collapsing Boston’s defense and making “good to great” passes.
4. Jalen Brunson: Mr. Clutch
- Stats: Leads all playoff players in clutch scoring (35 points, nearly double the next).
- Game 1 Impact:
- Late-game assassin.
- Attacks mismatches: Even Al Horford got danced on.
- Draws in defenders and kicks out — a mature floor general.
- Film Breakdown:
- Uses body well, finishes through contact.
- Not afraid of physicality or the moment.
- Slows the game down in clutch, creating chaos with pace control.
- Boston’s Concern: If the game stays close, it becomes Brunson’s game to win.
5. The Knicks’ Synergy and Simplicity
- Execution:
- Drive-and-kick game is sharp.
- Bigs screen with purpose (e.g., Isaiah Hartenstein and Josh Hart creating angles).
- No wasted movement.
- Role Players:
- Quick decisions. Bridges, Hart, DiVincenzo — all making the extra pass.
- They don’t need volume, just decisiveness.
6. Thunder & Celtics Both as Double-Digit Favorites
- Vegas Belief: Game 1 upsets won’t be repeated.
- Why?
- Regression to the mean for shooters.
- Celtics are unlikely to miss 45 threes again.
- Thunder likely to ramp up defensive pressure at home.
🔍 FINAL TAKEAWAY:
This is not just about shots going in or not. It’s about:
- Where those shots come from.
- When they come in the shot clock.
- And who’s generating them.
For Boston, the key is intentionality in the paint, and for New York, it’s keeping the game within clutch range—where Brunson becomes a demigod.
Leave a Reply